Pabian Law Client Alert: Demand for Winter-Season H-2B Visas (2025-2026 Season)

As a follow-up to the linked Client Alert that we sent this past Monday, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) announced today that it received 47,488 worker applications for October 1, 2025 start dates.  As a reminder, under H-2B visa regulations, there are 33,000 total worker applications available for start dates between October 1^st and March 31^st.  Clearly, the demand continues to be much higher than the supply.

This year’s October 1^st filings represent the largest number of worker positions ever filed for winter-season start dates (October 1^st-March 31^st start dates).  Additionally, this number represents an increase of over 7% from the previous year.  The chart below shows the increase in applications for October 1^st start dates over the past 5 years:

When do we predict the winter-season cap will be reached?

We have been holding countless webinars and communicating with our winter-season clients regarding the risks surrounding the cap since winter-season demand started ballooning over the past several years.  We have also been preaching the value of data and regularly sharing strategies based on historical information with clients.  We have been encouraging all winter-season organizations, and especially those with late-October or November start dates, to explore in-country recruiting as a way to avoid any potential cap risks.  Although this increase in demand is higher than we hoped, it confirms that our projections were accurate.

It is very difficult to predict when exactly the H-2B cap will be hit and, therefore, which start dates will fall before and after the cut-off.  The reason why is that it is impossible to know how many employers will request out-of-country, cap-subject workers, as opposed to in-country workers who aren’t counted toward the cap.  However, here is our best estimate regarding impacts (based on H-2B employment start date):

• October 1^st employers: Although the government split October 1^st cases into two groupings (Group A and Group B), relatively few applications were assigned to Group B.  Therefore, unless there is a significant unforeseen delay in the processing of a specific case, we are not concerned about October 1^st employers missing the cap (even if you have a Group B assignment).  In other words, if you are an October 1^st employer hoping to hire out-of-country workers, you should be able to continue with your plans.
• Early-October employers (after 10/1 but before 10/15): It is hard to predict, but we are hopeful that employers with early-October start dates will also be unaffected, especially those closer to 10/1.  However, if you originally planned to hire out-of-country workers and would like to explore the possibility of recruiting in-country workers as a backup plan, this could be something worth exploring.
• October 15^th employers: This is the first group that we believe is at significant risk of missing the cap.  The 7% increase in worker petitions from last year to this year is very similar to the 8% increase from the 2023-2024 season to the 2024-2025 season.  Based on when the cap was reached last year, as well as other data that we have collected, we expect mid-October start dates to be impacted. Therefore, if you originally planned to hire out-of-country workers, we would encourage you to explore the possibility of recruiting in-country workers as a backup plan as soon as possible.
• Late-October employers (after 10/15 but before 11/1): Based on the above, we think late-October employers likely to miss the cap.  There is a small chance to make the cap, but we would not recommend relying on this.  Therefore, in-country recruiting should be your primary plan.
• November 1^st and later: this group will almost certainly miss the cap.  As we have been predicting since last year, November 1^st and later start date employers must rely exclusively on in-country recruiting for H-2B workers going forward.

How should you proceed with winter-season recruiting?

Pabian Law clients, please join us for our upcoming client-only Pabian Law Town Hall Webinar about the winter-season lottery and cap for more of a discussion on the contents of this email update.  Details are below:

• Making sense of the H-2B Visa Lottery
  • Tuesday, July 15^th at 2:00pm EST
  • Complimentary, and only open to active Pabian Law clients
  • Registration information was already sent to Pabian Law clients.  If you are an active Pabian Law client and would like to join, please email me and I will resend you the registration link.

Please let us know if you have any questions.

Thank you,

Keith and the Pabian Law Team